#3
414 posts · Last used 7h
2GoodThingsandwaitingto make it #3goodthings
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The potty training of our foster doggy, Maple, hit a number 1 and 2 milestone this morning. And she learned how to sit by watching her big brother, Scout, who is actually smaller. She’s a genius. They both are. #DogsOfMastodon!
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The Coen brothers have a new#movie coming out! https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/movies/articles/coen-brothers-josh-o-connor-195039878.html
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You all know what #3 is. Let’s manifest it after we’ve all voted! #Election.
- YouTube
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I'm going to have to call some people tomorrow about my water incursions. Because rain happened.
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My friends are coming to visit from out of town tomorrow and I don't know exactly when, but one has already picked activities out that I'm not excited to do, and I don't know whether #3 is getting picked up to be part of this.
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My dad's complaining about stuff and I need to go see him at some point either before or after my friends' visit.
furthering my previous guessing that there’s likely only appetite for 2, maybe 3, of these ridiculous IPOs, a number of analyst notes have started kicking around and they’re getting progressively more realistic in their outlook. saw this one this morning
Red Flag #3: The IPO is Exit Liquidity, Not Growth Capital
To justify a $2 trillion valuation, our model shows that Anthropic would have to: • immediately improve NOPAT margin to 10% and sustain it for the next 10 years (compared to -175% reported operating margin in 2025), • grow revenue by 1000% in 2026 and 100% in 2027, and • grow revenue 56% compounded annually from 2028-2035.
sounds ambitious. sure hope they don’t have any material risks and systematic exposures that make that harder!
In this scenario, Anthropic’s
- revenue would reach $3.6 trillion (compared to $4.6 billion in 2025), which is 1.4x the combined TTM revenue of Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL).
- NOPAT would reach $358 billion in 2035, compared to the company’s -$8 billion reported operating loss in 2025. For reference, $358 billion is 2.0x NVIDIA’s $184 billion and 2.6x Apple’s $136 billion in TTM NOPAT.
good thing the cost of inference is going down! sure, qwen3.8-27b is already stale and everyone needs to throw another couple hundred million at another training update, but the cost of inference! /s
