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  Black voter turnout held at ~96% of 2024, the highest rate for any midterm in at least a decade, in the Deep South on Tuesday. If Scott Colom manages to win Mississippi's Senate seat, it wouldn't have been possible without sky-high engagement of Black voters www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-11-10...

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  At this rate Talarico would have won even if he really were a trans vegan communist

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  Fresh E-Day turnout data in Virginia, courtesy of State Navigate, implies Democratic **Election Day voters** are voting at a rate about 9-10 percentage points higher than Republicans. This is on top of the Democratic lead in engaging early voters in the state www.gelliottmorris.com/i/223234792/...

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  Not seeing anything indicating that the inference from early voting, that GOP turnout is way down, ISN'T applying to Elec Day voters as well. Early but there's currently no Republican Election Day surge making up for their decline in early voting. FL numbers: www.gelliottmorris.com/i/223234792/...

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  FINAL forecast: Will it be a blue wave, or a blue tsunami? Democrats favored to win 240 House and 52-53 Senate seats on average. Polling error could be enough for Rs to hold the Senate, but House would need biggest miss in 25 years www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-11-03...

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  The 50+1 polling averages and forecasting model will be updated sporadically this evening as our teams add the flood of final surveys coming out this evening, and we'll lock it shortly after midnight tomorrow morning. fiftyplusone.news

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  definitely someone like Marist is missing this RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:u57ugmveenw2uu3ns7pbcj4d/post/3mzdki3bsck2h

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  it's not a mystery why this guy is up 3 in texas. whether that will last or withstand polling error is another conversation. but clearly he's got the juice

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  I wouldn't be that surprised at a double-digit Dem generic ballot result at this point. Do I think it's the median outcome? Not currently, though polls could trend that direction very quickly as low-info voters tune in. I give Dems about a 45% chance of winning by 10+ points

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  if they don't believe the polls, why is he in texas?? RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/post/3mxrbkuncav2v

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  The entire US politics and news industries spend a large chunk of their waking hours on a platform designed to inflate the importance of that 18%. It's a big problem, and why you get stuff like Tammy Duckworth saying she's against impeachment because she wants to "find a compromise" on USAID $ RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:lzlqyldh7nfc34pfffvd24ko/post/3mwduolv5ps2j

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  “Nationally, the latest Strength in Numbers poll finds that those who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber strong approvers by nearly three to one. “  newrepublic.com/article/2151... MAGA Dimwit James Comer Blurts...

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  The numbers coming out of Detroit are not enough for Stevens. It’s a bloodbath

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  A new poll shared exclusively with Strength In Numbers finds independent candidate Seth Bodnar polling 6 points ahead of Republican Kurt Alme in a hypothetical one-on-one for Montana's Senate race, but the Democratic candidate Alani Bankhead trailing by 8. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-28... To defeat Republicans, Democra...

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  New poll from Strength In Numbers and Verasight this morning: Black voters and Democrats are systematically more likely to say they couldn’t process citizenship. These are **currently registered voters** — and so presumably citizens being disenfranchised. Poll: These Americans say they...

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  Here's my latest at the 50+1 blog: Despite some tightening in the generic ballot, Democrats are still heavy House favorites and lead or are tied in 6 GOP-held Senate seats, making them nearly even odds to take it, too. Jackson at +2 in Maine. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/fiftypluso...

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  Susan Collins probably doesn’t want the 2026 election to be about ICE enforcement RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:pifytwer7zg7psy7rfdb3gii/post/3mqjqzba4ms2a

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  Big story from the new Pew data out yesterday: Non-voters lean Democratic in party ID again, by a 12-point margin. That’s up from R+4 in 2024. Huge shift. The party is approaching its lead with the group from 2020-2021. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-15... Non-voters lean Democratic aga...

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  trump's evidence that the election was stolen is that voter files exist?

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  Per our new polling out today, the most popular politicians in America are… Barack Obama Bernie Sanders Zohran Mamdani Pete Buttigieg Jon Ossoff & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Trump is tied with Elon Musk and Hakeem Jeffries, Schumer and Carlson in last www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-06-29...

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  Reminder: All it would take to end the murder of American citizens by an untrained government goon squad is 16 Republicans in Congress voting with Dems to defund ICE (or 23 to impeach and remove Trump — 3 in House & 20 in Senate). That’s it. 23 Americans can vote for the public and end all of this.

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  trump literally broke the scale of this graph on my data portal www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data