AI 2027 tracker has updated again -On the main page chart, they decided to map the Anthropic unreleased models from the METR report for some reason. Setting aside how mapping unreleased models is inherently flawed because we don’t have the full picture, the METR report also said that their measurements come with a high uncertainty Onto the list of predictions -Late 2026 is at 84% -Still doing that weird thing where 80% is both partially accurate and confirmed accurate -The stock market prediction should be lower, since it didn’t get anywhere near 30% -Imo the AI narrative prediction should also be lower, since theres conflicting reports about AI being amazing/AI being trash all over mainstream news -One prediction got a 100% score even though part of it didn’t happen Overall seems like they got a lot of ‘easy’ stuff right (ie business gurus shilling AI) but missed the harder stuff