Replies (1)

• @HetareKing@piefed.social 2026-10-29 23:46

  I don’t think the dotcom bubble is comparable. Back then, once it was figured out how to make an income at all, it was mostly a matter of scaling, and the technology scales very well. If anything, the bubble popping helped the surviving companies by giving them the space to grow. But the problem right now is making enough money per customer to make up for the cost of servicing each customer, with no way of making up for it with scale. So even if some companies survive the bubble popping, they’ll have a hard time selling anything at a price most people would be willing to pay, unless they get very lucky and someone discovers a very effective optimisation or some new technology becomes mature enough, that makes running the model considerably less costly. Locally-run models won’t be unaffected either, because open or not, training a model is expensive and the funding for that will dry up too. And it’s not enough to just get it to a state where it can successfully delude people into thinking it provides value to them and call it done, it has to be constantly updated to stay relevant.

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